On Friday, March 28th 2025, tremors from an earthquake in Myanmar were felt across parts of Thailand, shaking buildings and raising concerns among residents and business owners. While Thailand is not traditionally known as a high-risk seismic zone, the impact of neighboring seismic activity is a growing concern that cannot be ignored—especially from a business continuity standpoint.
Understand Earthquake Risk in Thailand: A Hidden Threat
Thailand is not located on the edge of a major tectonic plate but it is affected by active fault lines in neighboring countries, particularly Myanmar. In addition, there are several fault lines within Thailand itself that can cause earthquakes, especially in the northern and western regions.
Steps in Conducting Earthquake with ISO 31000:2018 Risk Management
Risk Identification
The purpose of risk identification is to find, recognize and describe risks. Relevant, appropriate and up-to-date information is important in identifying risks.
Risk Analysis
The objective of risk analysis is to understand the nature and characteristics of the risk, including assessing the level of risk where appropriate. We will now proceed with analyzing the risks based on the information obtained from the risk identification process.
Large earthquakes originating outside of Thailand can transmit seismic waves into the country. The sources of these earthquakes include southern China, Myanmar, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Andaman Sea, and the northern part of Sumatra Island.
Earthquakes are caused by active fault lines that are capable of movement, mainly located in the northern and western regions of Thailand. Examples include the Chiang Saen Fault, Mae Tha Fault, Phrae Fault, Thoen Fault, Moei-Uthai Thani Fault, Si Sawat Fault, Three Pagodas Fault, and Khlong Marui Fault, among others.
1. Physical Losses
Earthquake hazards can result in both direct and indirect impacts. Examples include ground rupture, volcanic eruptions, collapse of buildings and structures due to seismic shaking, fires, gas leaks, tsunamis, landslides, and damage to transportation routes.
2. Health and Well-being Losses
People often panic and experience anxiety over the possibility of recurring events. Mental health issues among disaster victims may arise, including stress, trauma, and emotional instability.
3. Economic Losses
Telecommunication and internet signals may be interrupted or lost. Computer systems and networks might stop functioning or experience failures. Land and air transportation can also be disrupted, leading to delays in emergency response, logistics, and daily operations.
Areas in Thailand that are at high risk of earthquakes include regions situated near active fault lines. These high-risk zones are primarily found in the northern and western parts of the country.
1. Areas located near the sources of earthquakes along fault lines, both within and outside the country, are mostly found in the northern and western regions of Thailand.
2. Areas with a history or recorded statistics of past earthquakes and associated damage are more likely to experience future earthquakes of similar magnitude.
3. Areas with soft soil that can amplify seismic waves—such as regions with thick layers of clay beneath the surface in low-lying areas or near river mouths—are more susceptible to strong ground shaking during an earthquake.
Building and Structure
Thailand issued a Ministerial Regulation in 2007 specifying the load-bearing capacity, resistance, and durability of buildings and the ground supporting them in relation to earthquake resistance. This regulation was later updated in 2021. Therefore, buildings constructed before 2007 are likely to be at higher risk of being affected by earthquakes. In addition, while high-rise buildings may have initially considered seismic impacts during their design phase, they may not meet the current standards and requirements outlined in the updated regulation.
Low to moderate probability (infrequent occurrence, but has happened in the past)
According to data from the Meteorological Department and the Department of Mineral Resources, Thailand has experienced eight moderate earthquakes (magnitude 5.0–5.9 on the Richter scale) over the past 40 years, averaging one event every five years. Of these, five occurred in the northern region and three in the western region. Most earthquakes that occur in Thailand generally do not exceed a magnitude of 6.0 on the Richter scale.
Seismic Building Design Standards (e.g., DPT 1301/1302)
Warning Systems (in selected coastal areas only)
Government agencies such as the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) and the Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning (DPT) have implemented measures to enhance earthquake preparedness. However, there is still a lack of strict enforcement and limited public awareness on a broad scale, which may hinder the overall effectiveness of these efforts.
The timing of an earthquake cannot be predicted in advance. Damage occurs immediately and can be severe; therefore, preparedness measures must be in place beforehand, along with rapid warning systems to minimize impact.
Example of Risk Matrix for Earthquake
The assessment of earthquake risks and impacts depends on the specific context of each organization. This example serves as a preliminary consideration for risk evaluation.
Example Likelihood: 2 (It rarely occurs, but there is a history of it happening over several decades.) Consequence: 4-5 (The impact can be severe if it occurs in urban areas or near critical infrastructure.) Therefore, this risk is considered to be at (2,4) or (2,5) , which evaluated as Medium or High risk.
Interpretation of Risk Level
Low 🟢 means acceptable/under monitoring, with no need for significant additional measures.
Medium 🟡 means risk mitigation measures should be considered, and preparedness should be in place in advance.
High 🟠 means the risk should be addressed promptly, with contingency plans and resources prepared in case of an incident.
Extreme 🔴 means unacceptable / requires immediate action, and the risk must be avoided or effectively controlled.
Risk Evaluation
Risk Evaluation is a step in the risk management process under ISO 31000, following the risk analysis phase. The objectives are to: Compare the analyzed level of risk with the organization's acceptable risk criteria. Determine which risks are “acceptable” and which are “unacceptable” and require immediate action. Prioritize risks for management and mitigation efforts.
When an organization in Thailand analyzes that an earthquake could impact building structures or disrupt production, the next step is to assess whether this risk is too high to be considered acceptable.
Examples of Questions Used in Risk Assessment:
If a magnitude 6.0 earthquake occurs and our system is down for 3 days, would the financial impact exceed the organization's acceptable threshold?
What is the level of risk that the building currently in use may collapse? Is there a backup plan in place?
Do employees know how to evacuate safely?
Examples of Risk Assessment Outcomes
Risk Treatment
The process of selecting and implementing appropriate measures to reduce the level of risk to an acceptable level or to manage the potential impacts of that risk, based on the results of the risk assessment. According to ISO 31000, organizations can manage risk using the following approaches:
Avoid activities that lead to risk, such as not constructing a factory in an area with active fault lines or in zones identified as high-risk in the risk analysis.
Strengthen the building structure to withstand earthquakes.
Install an early warning system.
Conduct emergency evacuation drills.
Purchase earthquake insurance.
Engage contractors or partners to assume responsibility for certain risks within the supply chain.
In cases where the risk is low and the cost of mitigation is too high, the organization may choose to "accept" the risk and prepare response plans as necessary. For example, having a backup plan for working from home in case the office building is damaged.
Examples of Earthquake Risk Management in Thailand
Identified Risks:
The office building is located near an active fault line.
Risk Management Approaches:
Inspect the structure and upgrade it to meet seismic resistance standards.
Identified Risks:
No emergency response plan.
Risk Management Approaches:
Develop a Business Continuity Plan (BCP) and conduct regular evacuation drills.
Identified Risks:
Employees are unaware of the procedures to follow during an earthquake.
Risk Management Approaches:
Provide training and raise awareness through workshops, signage, or instructional manuals.
Identified Risks:
Damage to IT equipment/systems.
Risk Management Approaches:
Develop a data backup plan and implement remote work systems.
Conclusion:
Earthquake risk analysis in Thailand, according to ISO 31000, should consider multiple dimensions—engineering, geology, economic, and social aspects. It should incorporate both qualitative and quantitative data to accurately understand the level of risk and to develop appropriate risk management strategies.
